CDU Begins Building Coalition Following German Election
Hagan Burnett
Any pronouns
Staff Writer
2/28/25
On February 23rd, Germany held a snap federal election following the collapse of the governing coalition. The former governing coalition was known as the “traffic light coalition”; it consisted of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Liberals (FDP), and the Greens. But the firing of Liberal finance minister Christian Lindner by Chancellor Olaf Sholz, a Social Democrat, prompted FDP to leave the coalition. As such, SDP and The Greens did not have enough seats in the Bundestag (the lower German parliament) to pass any meaningful legislation.
Germany is a parliamentary democracy and no party has won a majority since 1961. Thus, coalitions are needed to govern so that legislation and bills can reach the 50% threshold. The leading party following the election are the Conservatives (CDU/CSU) who gained 28.5% of the vote and 208 out of 630 seats in the Bundestag. The far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) achieved 20.8%, which is the best result by the party in any federal level election since its founding. Falling to third place and achieving its worst result since 1887 were the Social Democrats, who achieved only 16.4% of the vote. Trailing behind were The Greens at 11.6% and The Left at 8.8%. The Liberals and a splinter party from The Left called BSW both failed to meet the 5% threshold to gain seats in the Bundestag. SSW, a regionalist party in northern Germany that received just 0.15% of the vote, is exempt from the 5% rule, and took one seat. As such, six total parties will be featured in the upcoming Bundestag. Voter turnout was at 82.5%, the highest since German reunification in 1990, and a 6 point percentage increase compared to the last election.
The push to form a coalition is in the hands of the Conservatives, and they are the most likely party to form one. Despite the AfD’s surge in popularity, they still are considered an outlier group, and the other parties have stated that they are unwilling to form a coalition with them. As a result, it is most likely that a new ‘grand coalition’ will be formed. Grand coalitions in German electoral politics are a coalition between the center-right CDU and the Social Democrats, traditionally the two largest parties. Even though they are on opposite sides of the political spectrum on most issues, they have a main common goal: prevent the AfD from achieving any governance or position of power whatsoever, reinforcing the conventional German political “firewall.” Even with this new grand coalition, the two parties still will not have enough to reach the 50% threshold, albeit they get close with 45% of the total number of seats.
Forming a new governing coalition is a daunting task. The CDU and SPD disagree on a number of issues ranging from the economy to social issues. The CDU will likely have to make concessions to get any party in the coalition. The SPD is still the most likely option for the coalition, as the CDU opposes both the AfD and The Left. If the CDU can bring The Greens into the coalition, it will hold around 57% of the seats in the Bundestag. This coalition is the most realistic, but is still unreliable and potentially volatile.
Despite the AfD’s strong showing and near doubling of seats, their impact on German domestic policy will be limited since they have been ostracized by the major parties. In addition, many of the policies they have suggested have also been suggested by the CDU, such as a much stricter immigration plan, continued arms support to Israel, and conservative economics. The party’s main difference is in Ukraine. The AfD is the only party above the 5% threshold that opposes German and European support for Ukraine.
Germany will continue to be a major European power, both economically and militarily, and will continue arms & economic support to Ukraine. If The Greens are in the coalition as well, we can expect slightly more left-wing economic policies, such as taxing inheritance and more investment in green energy.
Despite the growing political divide in Germany, the situation remains relatively the same as it has been: the older, more moderate parties will govern, and the newer ‘radical’ parties will be sidelined in opposition, as they plan for the new coalition talks.