Europe Shifts Gears as Trump Drives Wedge Deeper

Hagan Burnett

Any Pronouns

Staff Writer

4/17/25

President Trump has made criticizing European defence a centerpiece of his foreign policy agenda, questioning the utility and usefulness of NATO. Throughout the post-WWII era, a strong and unitary NATO has been an essential part of American military strategy. However, the recent leaked messages from “Signalgate” highlight the current administration’s view of Europe. Both Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth expressed disdain over perceived “free-loading” by European NATO members. And the controversial oval office meeting between Trump, Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelensky showed a radical departure from the Pro-Ukraine stance of the Biden administration. A US-EU split is not inevitable, but the consequences of a split would be deep and far-reaching.

Western Europe must now decide on a new defensive plan, whether it be finding new military partners, domestic military rearmament, or both. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, has already announced a major defense initiative aimed at restoring Europe as a major arms producer. The plan aims to support both immediate needs, including the supply of weapons to Ukraine, and to modernize the aging European armies. It is unlikely that Europe will be able to secure any new external weapons manufacturers, as there are four dominant players in the market: the United States, Russia, China, and European nations themselves. Europe views Russia as their main security threat, and neither China or Europe are likely to allow for arms exports. The major European arms manufacturers will have to shift from foreign to domestic production, and will have to re-industrialize to make up for the gap created in absence of the United States.

European economies are heavily integrated with the United States’ economy. Most transactions are done in US dollars, and the United States is a major trade partner with the region. European nations have already started to gradually warm relations with China as they seek to replace the US as a major economic partner. Similar to Russia after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, Europe will seek out new partners they deem more reliable and trustworthy than the US. This change in policy is a radical departure from previous decades when both Russia and China were seen as enemies and rivals. Europe may also turn to third-party nations such as India, Indonesia, the Gulf States, or Egypt to increase trade. Replacing the United States will not be easy, but European nations have already laid the groundwork to begin a transition away from the United States.

For the past 80 years, Europe and the United States were some of the strongest allies in the world. American media and culture expanded to Europe, and vice versa. European brands found record profits in the large American market, while the US produced consumer goods for Europe. However, that seems to no longer be the case. The US has already placed large tariffs on European goods and it shows no sign of stopping. The Trump administration has made controversial statements about the US-Europe relationship, and European countries have already begun a move to re-arm. Europe can afford to replace the United States with China, but the US will find itself more isolated as it wages trade wars against China and Europea.