Statistics show young voters will stuck between a rock and a hard place for the 2024 presidential race

James Oatis

He/Him

Staff Writer

2/27/24

With the 2024 election on the horizon, both of the major presidential options, Joseph Biden and Donald Trump are facing a similar problem: most of America dislikes both candidates. 

As of February 27th, 2024, Biden sits at a 55% disapproval rate. Similarly, Trump had a 58% disapproval rate when he left office in January of 2021. Most Americans dislike both politicians immensely. Current numbers show 41% of registered voters support Trump, while 37% favor Biden. Another 13% opt for alternative candidates, and 9% remain undecided. Things are dire for both candidates if neither can reach a majority, only a plurality. 

One of the biggest problems both candidates share is their age. Young voters show a notable amount of animosity to both candidates, according to the L.A. Times. Young voters feel that 81-year-old Joe Biden and 77-year-old Donald Trump are out of touch with young to middle-aged voters.

Many young voters dislike Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, as well as perceived failures on economic and student loan cancellation policies. Trump is also widely disliked due to his many court cases and accusations against him, his repression of civil rights – including a travel ban in Middle Eastern countries and banning transgender individuals from the military – and response to the coronavirus pandemic. 

So, if this is the case, why are Biden and Trump winning by record margins in the primaries? On the Democratic primary side, political science professor John Lappie theorizes that “the party organization in the United States is really weak” which leads to “the prominent democrats, who would be good presidential candidates, not wanting to challenge an incumbent president in Joe Biden.” The only notable candidate running against Biden is Dean Phillips, whose disastrous challenge to Biden was exposed with a huge loss in the New Hampshire primaries, where Biden was not even on the ballot. This is also seen in the Republican camp, with Trump dominating the republican primaries despite not appearing in debates.

Because of a structure like this, where single candidates can have almost complete control over their parties, many young voters feel that voting is almost futile. Lappie suggests there is less participation in political parties in times when parties are less stable. A study from a Harvard IOP youth poll shows that 7% of likely voters don’t know if they would pick Trump or Biden, while 3% would not even vote. This number is high compared to other years. In 2012, 97% of young voters voted for either Romney or Obama.

A popular discussion involves third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West who are trying to win the presidency, but (realistically) competing to take away votes from mainline candidates, as shown in the Harvard poll. Factoring in third-party candidates reduces a 57% Biden vote to a 43% vote. Right now, polls show Biden has the most popular support among young voters, but come Election Day, things may change. 

Most young voters will decide to reluctantly select Trump or Biden, with a small amount picking a third-party candidate in protest, to send a message that young Americans are sick of Trump and Biden.