Provided by Jacob Downey
Trump in shape to break NH’S 24–year blue streak
James Oatis
He/Him
Staff Writer
7/8/24
2024 may mark the first time since the 2000 election that a Republican wins a presidential general election in New Hampshire. Given President Biden’s low approval ratings, poor debate performance, and NH’s increasingly diverse political population, former President Donald Trump may turn the state red for the first time in more than 20 years.
New Hampshire has a more diverse political history than its neighbors in New England. While Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, and the statewide popular vote of Maine (one of two states that also allocates electoral votes for the winner of each congressional district) have been blue since at least 1992, New Hampshire has bucked that trend, including ventures out of the bipartisan system. In 1992 and 1996, third party candidate Ross Perot won a sizable share of voters with 22.6% and 9.7%, respectively. And New Hampshire stood out from its New England neighbors by being the only state in the region to vote for George W. Bush instead of Al Gore in 2000.
Even in the recent streak of democrat voting, New Hampshire’s margins have been much closer than states like Massachusetts and Vermont. In 2004, John Kerry destroyed Bush in Massachusetts with 62% of voters. Next door, New Hampshire held a razor tight race; Kerry beat Bush by one percent. In 2016, Hillary Clinton narrowly won NH with a .04 point lead over Trump. In Maine, the next closest New England state, Clinton won by 3 points. In Massachusetts, she won by 27.
Now, in 2024, a race between 81-year-old Joe Biden and 78-year-old Donald Trump has many Americans stuck as to whom they would rather vote for in November. In a May UNH poll, Biden was favored to win by 2 points, and the NH Journal called the race even around the same time. However, in June, a Saint Anslem’s College poll put Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden by 2 points. This matches increased national support for Trump over the past two months, motivated by policy on the border, Ukraine, and Israel/Palestine.
Though Trump was already steadily gaining more support than Biden, the presidential debate on June 27th will likely make swing states more favorable to Trump. Joe Biden’s disastrous performance, filled with constant stuttering, incorrect claims, and lack of confidence, increased Trump’s national lead by over two points in the following week. For Biden to win New Hampshire, crucial areas such as Coos County and Belknap County become vital. Biden wins there seem harder and harder as the days pass. Unless Donald Trump makes a severe mistake, New Hampshire seems prepared to elect their first republican presidential candidate in 24 years.